Monday, January 4, 2010

Review of Top Ten Stocks for 2009.

Back in January 2009, I posted a list of my top ten stock picks for 2009.The original article can be found here: prices are January 1, 2009 and end prices are from December 31, 2009.The results and recommendations can be found here:

Start $4.48
End $13.35
Gain 198%
What I Said: Strong lineup with Christmas Carol, Watchmen, Star Trek, Transformers 2, and Avatar.
What Happened: Great results from all movies on Imax. Star Trek, Transformers 2, and Avatar have sold out many theaters during their releases
2010: Avatar continues to dominate in theaters as it sells out every time slot at almost every theater. The 2010 slate of openings includes Alice in Wonderland, Hubble 3D, How to Train Your Dragon, Shrek Forever After, Toy Story 3, Twilight Eclipse, Inception, and Tron. More movies will be announced but this is the largest and most promising lineup. The announcement I followed the closest was Twilight: Eclipse. This movie will sell out every screen for opening weekend and beyond. The stock will continue to move upwards especially when earnings are released from the most recent quarter. Hold the stock if you have it, if not look for any drop to $12 to buy in.

Start $59.83
End $64.41 plus $1.93 in dividends
Gain 11%
What I Said: Great blue chip play down from its 52 week high. I also said the dividend would be increased which happened. The stock now pays out .49 a quarter, up from .46 previously.
What Happened: The stock currently sits at $1 shy of its 52 week high and continues to rise as the healthcare sectore looks strong.
2010: Johnson and Johnson will continue to be a good blue chip stock. Its days of strong growth are gone but a 3% dividend is being paid and the company acquires companies to increase its cash flow. I would hold the stock if you have it and collect the nice dividend.

Start $33.53
End $38.40
Gain 15%
What I Said: New partnership with Coca-Cola to distribute would boost earnings and overseas presence and would eventually lead to a buyout of the entire company.
What Happened: The stock climbed up 15% and is increasing its presence in several European markets. The company strongly lags Red Bull overseas but continues to gain. Coca Cola gave up its deal to distribute Full Throttle to be able to distribute Monster, so they obviously believe in the growth.
2010: I continue to think that this is one of the strongest guaranteed buyouts in the future. Coca Cola is pretty much testing out the market and overseas growth of the company before they buy it. Continue to accumulate shares under $35.

Start $8.64
End $11.12
Gain 29%
What I Said: The results from Christmas quarter should be good. New Guitar Hero and Call of Duty games will sell well.
What Happened: Call of Duty game broke sales records.2010: The stock is still down from its 52 week high. The company still has a World of Warcraft expansion, a new Diablo game, and the much anticipated new Starfox game. It's hard to think that the stock won't be up at the end of 2010.
2010: Buy any shares below $12

Start $15.03
End $19.68 plus $1.32 in dividends
Gain 40%
What I Said: The stock trades at 5x earnings and yields over eigh percent.
What Happened: The company increased its payout even more and currently yields seven percent. Throughout the year the company found ways to continue to make money as less people smoke. The strenghth of SABMiller was good as well.
2010: The stock will continue to raise its dividend as it is a cash making machine. Also look for another acquisition which the company loves making. The stock makes a great long term blue chip dividend stock

Start $4.58
End $26.25
Gain 473%
What I Said: Speculative stock that will either blow up or blow up in my face.
What Happened: The stock shot up after results of Provenge and the recommendation from a panel of nine to approve the drug.
2010: May 1st, 2010 is the current FDA approval or non approval date. The stock will trade between $25 and $30 probably before that day. If not approved, the stock will lose almost all its value. If approved the stock will shoot up nicely and may lead to a partnership or a buyout.

Start $9.53
End $19.50 plus $.20 in dividends
Gain 107%
What I Said: Company continues to ride the flat screen television boom
What Happened: Flat screen televisions sold well as did the glass that Corning markets. The stock finally traded at a more realistic price earnings ration then 2008.
2010: The stock is on several investors top ten stock picks for 2010 lists. It won't be on mine because I don't want any repeats but if I could Corning would be there again. The stock will gain as long as televisions sell. The stock also will be more in demand for fiber optics as I said last year.

Start $38.32
End $54.09 plus $1.12 in dividends
Gain 44%
What I Said: Stock should ride the infrastructure boom and a great Obama play.
What Happened: The stock rose along with the rest of the agriculture sector as the stocks bounced back to 2008 prices.
2010: The stock will always be a great play on agriculture and infrastructure.

Start $3.17
End $3.36
Gain 6%
What I Said: New City of Dreams casino will increase market share.
What Happened: The market is still hesitant to get into a casino stock plus regulation on the number of visitors to Macau hurt the stock. The stock still gained but was my worst performing stock.
2010: I still like the stock as a long term play. Macau is the busiest casino city in the world and continues to increase. The number of casinos is limited due to licenses and this stock will gain due to that fact.

Start: $47.25
End: $82.94
Gain: 76%
What I Said: Screaming bargain trades at three times 2009 earnings and trades below book value.
What Happened: The oil market gained some strength and the stock came back to the $80 level and now trades above book value.
2010: The stock could come back to the $100 level as the hunt for oil increases and RIG will benefit from this search. I would look to buy at the $75 level if the stock hits it.

Overall all ten stocks were up. The stocks together were up 999% for a 99.9% gain average. Without the best performing stock, the ten still averaged 58% gains.Three of my stocks were doubles in a year.

For 2009:
Nasdaq up 44%
Dow up 18.8%
S & P up 23.5%
As you can see I beat all three indexes. Even without my multi bagger taken out investing in my top ten still would of beat any of the markets. Look for my 2010 pick later this week.

Disclosure: Long IMAX, ATVI, MO

1 comment:

  1. Great summary about each stock. I enjoyed reading this article and learned more about several companies and industries I'm going to invest in now. Thank you.